With the COVID variant spreading globally, the BTC market has finally hit rock bottom?

Rainbow Bitcoin Weekly 21.11.29

The market trending of Bitcoin last week has been fluctuating rapidly. There has been a continuous decline in the middle week with the lowest of $53500. Then there has been a bounce back with the highest of $58900. The K-line has been recovering near the level of $57000. The 4-hour level of primary BOLL has been on the rails many times, and the local pressure has fallen back many times, almost opening the BOLL window to form a new wave of an upward trend. In the one-hour level earlier yesterday, the moving averages coincided in the upward direction, and BOLL opened, waiting for the small level to pick the direction again. MCAD shows signs of a golden cross at the bottom, and the green kinetic energy column shrinks. The top-level focus is near $59400 while the bottom support focuses on $56,000. Last week’s hot topics shift from the metaverse and the popularity of GameFi has gradually diverted to WEB3.0, and the tokens which are related to similar concepts have received more purchase than before.

The development of WEB3.0 is still at an early stage. The fluctuating trend of Bitcoin happens because the dive this week was largely due to the news of the South African COVID variant. A similar plot has happened before. It is believed that the value of the crypto market will not be depressed for a long time.

What happened last week

· The overall market value of the cryptocurrency has decreased by 200 billion U.S dollars due to the impact of the South African COVID variant spreading.
· President Salvador is building the world’s first “city of bitcoin” which only uses volcanic geothermal power to generate electricity and only collects value-added tax.
· Coinbase acquires BRD, the company which created the crypto wallet.
· The total number of SHIB holders has reached 1 million.
· Grayscale has submitted a new ETF application.
· Ethereum Foundation has announced that the Kintsugi testing network is expected to be launched in early December.

The recap of the additional data analysis for last week is as follows.

Number of on-chain Bitcoin Transactions

The number of on-chain Bitcoin transactions has maintained the same level as the week before without any significant changes. The highest of last week has reached 298 thousand transactions while the lowest has reached 214 thousand transactions. Recently the number of on-chain Bitcoin transactions is slowly uprising while the overall trend continued to fluctuate upward. The number of transactions has been slowly increasing since February 2018. The
number of on-chain Symbolized transactions symbolizes the core value and but for also be an important supporting factor of Bitcoin market price. Currently, the number of On-chain Bitcoin transactions is showing a rapid growth in the short term.

Hashrate of Bitcoin

Last week’s average hash rate of Bitcoin has a waterfall-like decline compared to the previous week. Certainly, there are some connections between the falling of the BTC hash rate and the falling of BTC price. The lowest of last week has reached 138.2 Ehash/s while the highest has reached 166.5 Ehash/s. The Bitcoin hash rate among the whole network has been doubled since the low point in June this year. Hash rate is considered as the basis of Bitcoin since it directly affects the market price of Bitcoin. It is fair to say that the hash rate is the core stone of Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Bitcoin Supply on Exchange Wallets

Compared to the week before, last week’s reserved amount of Bitcoin upon each mainstream exchange has been slightly increasing by 5471, resulting in a total of 1 million and 297 thousand. The selling-off pressure has been increased but the risk of massively falling is small still. The supply of Bitcoin among exchange wallets has been maintained to an approximate ratio of 6.3%. The circulation of Bitcoin of last week remains constant compared to the week before.

The supply of Bitcoin among exchange wallets is a vital index to monitor Bitcoin’s market price trajectory. The net inflow foreshadows the large pressure of selling off their Bitcoin while the net outflow indicates that the investors are more likely to hold their Bitcoin.

The open interest of Grayscale Trust

Diagram 1: Grayscale Trust open interest
BTC-Grayscale Trust OTC Premium Rate

The grayscale BTC trust has underweighted 242 Bitcoins in the last 7 days which underweighted 1,025 Bitcoins in total. The rate of underweighting remains steady. The Grayscale has been outflowing Bitcoin since March 3rd. Right now the open interest Of Grayscale BTC trust is 646,050 Bitcoins and the GBTC index is -14.12%.

USDT Premium Index

Last week’s USDT premium rate on November 17 is 1.00060148. It is a significant decrease compared to the week before while it still maintains a decent level. This means restively fewer funds are entering the market. The falling of BTC price and the rapid fluctuation of the market is making the investors hesitate of entering the market or adding more funds. The USDT premium index is the ratio of USDT/USD, and it reflects the volume of fund which enters the market.

Fear & Greed Index

The average fear & greed index has shown some decrease compared to the week before. During the time where BTC prices fall rapidly, the fear & greed index has reached 27. Yesterday it slightly increased to 33. It comes as no surprise that the investors are upset due to the market fluctuation last week. It is recommended to add positions rationally for risk control. Fear & Greed Index, also known as VIX (Volatility Index). It is originally a stock market index that contains many factors such as market volatility, market trading volume, social media heat, and Google buzzwords analysis. The threshold of this index is 0 to 100. The lower index indicates the investors are more likely to sell while the higher index indicates the investors are more likely to hold. Fear & Greed index can be used to predict the potential risk for helping to make investment decisions. An extremely low fear & greed index could bring potential opportunities for buying while an extremely high fear & greed index could bring massive change to the market.

Google Search Trend

A new highest point of “Bitcoin” related buzzwords search volume has appeared last week where the word “bitcoin” is searched 98 times. It happens due to market fluctuation. The market fluctuation has surely made investors upset but they still follow the market trend and wait for opportunities.

Disclaimer by Snoopy the CCO: This article is NOT in any form an investment recommendation, please research carefully before you make any investment decisions. The price of bitcoin is $58,300 while this article is being written.

Written on 2021.11.29

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