The return of bull is becoming hopeless.
The time of the bear is coming.
Rainbow Bitcoin Weekly 22.01.24
After bottoming out near $34,000, Bitcoin ushered in a volatile weekend. There is no obvious reversal in the overall trend. There are some short-term signals to stop falling, but the overall condition is not optimized. The weekly decline has opened the BOLL kneeling channel. Overall, the downward trend still exists. Going to the large-scale analysis, Bitcoin has reached the middle orbit of the monthly BOLL, forming strong support here, and there is a high probability that it will fluctuate repeatedly in the selected direction for a period in the future. From the perspective of various indicators, technically the crypto market has entered a bear market. During this bull-bear transition period, some altcoins that are just hype concepts will fall relatively large or even return to zero, while the remaining ones have the value of crossing bulls and bears. project. Investors need to control risks, try their best to hold their chips, and wait for a better time to buy cheap chips. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
What’s happening last week:
l The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened lower, and blockchain concept stocks fell.
l Foxconn: This year will enter the Metaverse, designing wearable devices/semiconductors/microdisplays, etc.
l Cathie Wood： Blockchain technologies such as NFTs are one of the megatrends to watch in 2022.
l El Salvador buys 410 bitcoins for $15 million
l The negative premium of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is about 30%, a record low.
l The Federal Reserve released the central bank’s digital currency white paper, creating a digital dollar for the promise.
l Lamborghini announced the launch of NFT, details such as auction information will be announced in the next few weeks.
The recap of the additional data analysis for this week is down below.
Number of on-chain Bitcoin Transactions
Compared with the previous three weeks, the number of transactions on the Bitcoin chain has a small decline, and the overall trend is down. Last week, the peak number of transactions dropped to around $272,000, and the lowest was $204,000. The overall trend is switching from fluctuating upwards to partially fluctuating downwards. The number of transactions has been slowly increasing since February 2018.
The number of on-chain Bitcoin transactions symbolizes the core value of Bitcoin and is also an important supporting factor of the Bitcoin market price. Currently, the Number of On-chain Bitcoin transactions is showing rapid growth in the short term.
Hash rate of Bitcoin
The average hash rate of the entire Bitcoin network continued to maintain a relatively high point this week compared to the previous week, with the highest point this week reaching 217 Ehash/s. It was 10 Ehash/s higher than the highest point last week. The breakthrough refreshed the previous week’s all-time high.
The value of the Bitcoin hash rate among the whole network has been doubled since the low point in June this year. Hash rate is considered as the basis of Bitcoin since it directly affects the market price of Bitcoin. It is fair to say that the hash rate is the core stone of Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Bitcoin Supply on Exchange Wallet
This week, the bitcoins that are currently reserved by major mainstream exchanges have increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the bitcoins that have been reserved by major mainstream exchanges in the past 7 days have increased by 10,478, showing a certain selling pressure again. The exchange wallet BTC supply increased slightly compared to the previous week and is currently at 6.2%.
The supply of Bitcoin among exchange wallets is a vital index to monitor Bitcoin’s market price trajectory. The net inflow foreshadows the large pressure of selling off their Bitcoin while the net outflow indicates that the investors are more likely to hold their Bitcoin.
The open interest in the grayscale trust
Grayscale BTC Trust has continued to reduce its holdings of 242 bitcoins in the past 7 days and 990 bitcoins in the past 30 days. The frequency of reductions is relatively stable, but it is worth noting that on January 15, Grayscale’s lightning efforts increased significantly. . Since March 3, 2021, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been in an outflow state, and the current holdings of Grayscale BTC Trust is 643,900. GBTC premium rate is -19.89%.
USDT Premium Rate
The USDT premium rate is maintained at a normal level. Right now it stays at the level of 1.00060221. Based on the fluctuation recently, it does not seem to make a significant increase.
The USDT premium index is the ratio of USDT/USD and it reflects the volume of fund which enters the market.
Fear & Greed Index
The fear & greed is dropping to a new lowest of 13 recently. This number shows extreme fear in the market. The investors are extremely upset, and it is recommended to add positions rationally but please manage the investments carefully and stay focused on risk control.
Fear & Greed Index, also known as VIX (Volatility Index). It is originally a stock market index containing many factors such as market volatility, market trading volume, social media heat, and Google buzzwords analysis. The threshold of this index is 0 to 100. The lower index indicates the investors are more likely to sell while the higher index indicates the investors are more likely to hold. Fear & Greed index can be used to predict the potential risk for helping to make investment decisions. An extremely low fear & greed index could bring potential opportunities for buying while an extremely high fear & greed index could bring massive change to the market.
Google Search Trend
A significant decline is happening to the search volume of the word “Bitcoin”. This is not a good sign as investors do not wish to follow the trend of Bitcoin in the bear market.
Disclaimer:
This article is NOT in any form an investment recommendation, please research carefully before you make any investment decisions. The price of bitcoin is $41,700 while this article is being written.
2021.01.24
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