The balance of Bitcoin in exchange reaches the lowest in the past 3 years. Massive change on the market incoming?

Rainbow 6ix Crypto
6 min readNov 23, 2021

Rainbow Bitcoin Weekly 21.11.22

The bitcoin price trend is experiencing a relatively large callback to $55,000 this week. Generally, the trend after is continuously shocking. The one-hour support level is at $55,000 while the pressure level is between $55,000 to $60,000. The four-hour level of support and pressure is at $56,000 and $61,000 respectively. After two consecutive K lines at the daily level, the adjustment of the negative balance is blocked at the 7-day moving average. The market must effectively break through the upper resistance level if it seeks to reverse. The MACD death cross is showing an extending downward sign. This shock interval may continually exist until mid-to-late December before a direction is chosen. The balance of Bitcoin in exchanges last week has decreased to the lowest in the past 3 years. The risk of a continued fall is relatively small with the pressure of selling off being relatively reduced. Increasing the number of positions rationally is recommended if there are any positions that remained. The current trend of ETH is stronger than BTC. Therefore, stepping back could be a decent opportunity for increasing positions.

What happened last week:

  • The government of Fujian from China has declared that they will dedicatedly eliminate Chinese crypto mining.
  • The finance magnate, SBI, is planning to release the first funding product of crypto assets.
  • The Republic of EI Salvador’s president has announced his plan of buying more Bitcoins with 500 million U.S dollars.
  • Twitter now accepts Bitcoin payment for Android users.
  • Morgan Stanley declares that Metaverse will create $50 billion in business opportunities for the digital luxury industry.

The recap of the additional data analysis for last week is as follows.

Number of on-chain Bitcoin Transactions

The number of Bitcoin on-chain transactions has dropped significantly last week. The highest number has reached 301 thousand which is approximately 35 thousand less than the peak of the week before. The lowest number of transactions has gone to nearly 223 thousand. The number of transactions on the Bitcoin chain has decreased, which is directly reflected in the price of Bitcoin. Corresponding prices have also fallen but the overall trend continued to fluctuate upward. The number of transactions has been slowly increasing since February 2018. Not only does the number of on-chain Bitcoin transactions symbolize the core value of Bitcoin, but also being an important supporting factor of Bitcoin market price. Currently, the Number of On-chain Bitcoin transactions is showing rapid growth in the short term.

Hashrate of Bitcoin

Among the whole network, last week’s average hashrate of Bitcoin has been significantly decreasing following by the decreasing transaction numbers. The lowest of last week has reached 153.8 Ehash/s while the highest has reached 175.1 Ehash/s. The Bitcoin hashrate among the whole network has been doubled since the low point in June this year. Hash rate is considered as the basis of Bitcoin since it directly affects the market price of Bitcoin. It is fair to say that hashrate is the core stone of Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Bitcoin Supply on Exchange Wallets

Last week’s reserved amount of Bitcoin upon each mainstream exchange has been decreased to a total of 1.29 million BTC which is 22839 BTC less compared to the week before. The pressure of selling off is decreased which means the risk of Bitcoin’s market price falling off massively is small. The supply of Bitcoin among exchange wallets has been maintained to an approximate ratio of 6.3% which is a 0.1% decrease. The circulation of Bitcoin of last week remains constant compared to the week before.

The supply of Bitcoin among exchange wallets is a vital index to monitor the trajectory of Bitcoin’s market price. The net inflow foreshadows the large pressure of selling off their Bitcoin while the net outflow indicates that the investors are more likely to hold their Bitcoin.

The open interest of Grayscale Trust

Grayscale Trust open interest
BTC-Grayscale Trust OTC Premium Rate

The grayscale BTC trust has underweighted 353 BTC in the last 7 days which results in underweight of 1162 BTC in the last 30 days. The ratio of underweight remains constant. The Grayscale BTC Trust has always been outflowing since March 3rd this year. Right now the Grayscale BTC Trust’s open interest is 646189 BTC. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s OTC premium rate is -15.95%.

USDT Premium Index

Last week’s USDT premium rate on November 21 is 1.00120226. It is a significant increase compared to the week before while it still maintains in a decent level. The USDT premium index is the ratio of USDT/USD, and it reflects the volume of fund which enters the market.

Fear & Greed Index

Last week’s average fear & greed index has been increased a few. The fear & greed index before has been maintain between 50–70 while last week has been decreased to 50. This means the investors are being upset to the market. It is recommended to add positions rationally for risk control. Fear & Greed Index, also known as VIX (Volatility Index). It is originally a stock market index contains many factors such as market volatility, market trading volume, social media heat and Google buzzwords analysis. The threshold of this index is 0 to 100. The lower index indicates the investors are more likely to sell while the higher index indicates the investors are more likely to hold. Fear & Greed index can be used to predict the potential risk for helping to make investment decisions. An extreme low fear & greed index could bring potential opportunities for buying while an extreme high fear & greed index could bring massive change to the market.

Google Search Trend

Recently, “Bitcoin” related buzzwords’ search volume has rarely fluctuated comparing to the week before. The word “bitcoin’s search volume is 53 which is a slight decrease to the week before. It still maintains in the range of normal.

This article is not an investment recommendation. The price of bitcoin is $57,500 while this article is being written.

Disclaimer by Snoopy the CCO: This article is NOT in any form an investment recommendation, please research carefully before you make any investment decisions. The price of bitcoin is $57,500 while this article is being written.

Written on 2021.11.22

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